Does Covid-19 put democracy in Africa at risk?
May 4, 2020
This Policy Brief analyses the risks of Covid-19 pandemic emergency measures to democratic standards in Eastern and Southern Africa. It is based on data from the Pandemic Backsliding Risk Index which tracks government responses to Covid-19 and uses V-Dem data to factor in the general risk of democratic declines. The data reveals that of the thirteen countries assessed in Eastern and Southern Africa, at least nine imposed measures that bring a high risk of pandemic backsliding by limiting freedom, the role of the legislature, the role of the judiciary and enforcing pandemic measures abusively and arbitrarily.
Analysing government performance in service delivery in Africa
What issues do voters want political parties to address in Mozambique's 2019 election?
February 7, 2019
CPGD's Working Paper 12 - Analysis of government performance in service delivery in Africa and factors influencing results - has been published in the Africa Journal of Public Sector Development and Governance, a peer-reviewed scholarly journal published by the African Management Development Institutes’ Network (AMDIN).
August 28, 2019
This Compendium analyses and compares voter turnout and party competition of all Mozambique national legislative elections longitudinally from the founding multiparty election in 1994 to the most recent in 2014. It does so using official data from electoral institutions at district level. It investigates the levels of voter turnout; how voter turnout changed from election to election; the levels of party competition; and how party competition varied over time.
July 11, 2019
What do Mozambican voters want political parties to address regarding the economy, health, politics, public services, infrastructure and agriculture in their 2019 election manifestos?
Find out from our infographic series based on the findings of a nationwide study of 30 focus groups conducted by CPGD in partnership with NDI.
June 10, 2019
How might long and short-term factors influence the way Mozambican’s vote in the October 2019 election? CPGD Briefing Paper 7 considers the long-term influence of voters’ party identification, the short term influences of performance of the president and trust in the incumbent and opposition parties as well as voter intention to try to predict the outcome of the election. While the Paper's evidence suggests that the incumbent party Frelimo and its candidate, Filipe Nyusi, has a good prospect of being re-elected, that evidence is discussed considering other accounts. The paper also reflects on ethnic cleavage and the role it may play in the forthcoming election.
May 20, 2019
What factors affect government performance in delivering public services? CPGD Working Paper 12 analyses government performance in service delivery in 35 countries in Africa using Afrobarometer public opinion data. The evidence shows that the government act of providing services in Africa tends to be shallow and that performance is mainly explained by three factors: the status of the economy, corruption and, to some extent, the effectiveness of the media.
February 28, 2019
This study evaluates the rule of law covering more than a decade of performance of Mozambique electoral democracy using Afrobarometer public opinion data and an initial exploration of expert opinion data from the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The report provides a valuable baseline study to monitor the performance of Sustainable Development Goal 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) in Mozambique. The study reveals that demand and supply of the rule of law in the country is widespread but low and declining. Mozambicans are likely to demand for the rule of law and view that they are being supplied with the rule of law in 22 (63 percent) out of 35 indicators. However the likelihood is of shallow levels and levels declining over time.
Dec, 4, 2018
This study [in Portuguese] assesses the factors that affect gender equality and empowerment of women, based on Mozambican public opinion. The study concludes that Mozambicans are likely to form attitudes that promote gender equality and women’s empowerment, however these attitudes vary with the gender of the respondent. Because of their marginalization, Mozambican women are more likely to promote social equity and gender equity than men. The study also reveals that Mozambicans who perceive unequal treatment of women by police or traditional courts and leaders are less likely to promote equal rights between men and women and value women.
2nd Round 2018 Nampula City By-election: Reflections on Voter Turnout
Partisanship, Charisma and Loyalty in the 1st Round 2018 Nampula City By-election
Perspectives on the 2018 Nampula City
By-election - Briefing Paper
The School as an Institution of Democracy: An Assessment of Mozambique
Does Growing Up Democratic Matter?
Oct 8, 2018
To date, Mozambique has conducted four municipal assembly elections in 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013. The fifth round is due to be conducted in October 2018.
This Briefing Paper compares municipalities at the national level over the first four legislative local elections conducted in terms of voter turnout and party competition. It provides details of the most and least competitive municipalities as well as reveals those municipalities that have had the highest and lowest levels of voter turnout.
Sept 24, 2018
This new resource guide from CPGD provides essential data on voter turnout and party competition covering all four local elections conducted so far in Mozambique's 53 municipalities. It is the first edition in what will be an ongoing initiative to incorporate forthcoming local legislative election data and build a comprehensive dataset for election studies and analysis. The compendium provides data and analysis for each municipality on: the levels of voter turnout; how voter turnout changed from election to election; the levels of party competition; and
how party competition varied over time.
Sept 19, 2018
CPGD, in partnership with the National Democratic Institute, undertook nationwide research to gather the views and concerns of Mozambican citizens with the aim to better inform political parties as they design their electoral manifestos and campaigns for the 2019 general election. The findings reveal citizens concerns related to political issues, economic affairs, health, agriculture, infrastructure and public services, as well as how parties should address these issues in their election campaigns and the extent to which parties have successfully incorporated their views in the past. The report is available in English and Portuguese.
June 26, 2018
This research note compares two different data sources that provide information about citizen's concerns in Mozambique. It looks at how the information has been captured and considers the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. The aim is to help policy makers to better understand survey data that they may rely on for decision making purposes.
March 5, 2018
With low voter turnout in the 1st round of the 2018 Nampula City by-election, what factors might affect voter turnout of the 2nd round? Read our blog reflecting on three factors that may influence the turnout: the context of the university academic calendar, the role of born-frees and those who voted for losing candidates in the first round.
March 2, 2018
After predicting well in our previous study that the 2018 Nampula City by-election would be very competitive with low voter turnout, CPGD's latest analysis looks at the potential factors that affected why voters voted in the way that they did.
Partisanship, charisma and party loyalty all appeared to have influenced voters to make their political choice, with 'swing voters' potentially playing a defining role in the outcome. The second round vote to be held on 14 March 2018 will be interesting to observe, where high levels of charisma and party support (Amisse Cololo/Frelimo) will collide with high level of voters’ loyalty (Paulo Vahanle/Renamo). Within the context that Nampula City is a very competitive constituency for both parties; it is too close to call the winner, at least based on comparison of Frelimo-Renamo election competition from 1994 to 2018, and low turnout.
January 10, 2018
In advance of the Nampula City by-election on 24th January 2018, CPGD has prepared a briefing paper to provide data and analysis on election competition and voter turnout trends based on all previous elections conducted in Nampula City.
The paper predicts that the participation of candidates from the three major political parties will increase electoral competition to the extent of narrowing the margin of victory and/or leading to a second-round vote. It also predicts that parties’ participation and election competition will increase voter turnout but the level of turnout will remain low.
December 14, 2017
CPGD's latest working paper explores the concept of the school as an institution of democracy, in the context of Mozambique.
It assesses the extent to which publicly funded schools in Mozambique provide education about aspects of democracy and provides recommendations that can boost schools to become enduring democratic structures that can instil democratic values into future generations of Mozambican citizens.
June 16, 2017
CPGD’s latest working paper in our Youth and Development series, focuses on Born Frees’ attitudes towards democracy in Mozambique. The paper uses the most recent public opinion survey in Mozambique to test whether growing up democratic matters for attitudes towards democracy. It explores the assumption that, different from older generations who grew up and/or experienced limitations of freedom under authoritarian rule, Mozambican citizens who were born free (since the 1994 founding multiparty democratic election) are more likely to adopt positive attitudes toward democracy. This is because they grew up ‘free’ in a context of democratic institutions, procedures and values. However the research findings show the opposite to be true, that Mozambican born frees tend not to be committed to democracy or understand what democracy is compared to older generations.